CEE Seminar (ZOOM): A Fresh Look at Quantifying the Response of Landscape Freeze-thaw to Changing Climate - Applications in Quebec, Canada

Abstract: Cycles of Freeze-Thaw (FT) are among the key landscape features in cold regions. Under warming climate, understanding alterations in FT characteristics is of a great importance for land and water management in northern latitudes. Quantifying FT responses, however, ​is not trivial due to sparse networks of in-situ measurements as well as limitations in current physically-based modeling schemes ​that aim to provide continuous simulations of FT states in time and space. Here, we ​shift the focus of FT modeling from continuous simulations of FT states to statistical representations of FT characteristics at larger temporal and spatial scales. Accordingly​, we suggest using formal models of conditional dependence to describe the impacts of changing climate on FT characteristics probabilistically. The application of this method is showcased in Québec, the largest Canadian province, where we note a vivid spatial divide between ​the nature of response in northern and southern regions and point to ​​asymmetry and nonlinearity of FT responses ​to climatic changes. Using this framework in the context of bottom-up and top-down impact assessments, ​we provide future projections of FT states in Québec and introduce a generic methodology that has a global relevance​.

Bio: Ali Nazemi is an associate professor in the Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering at Concordia University, Montreal, Canada. His research provides modeling solutions for studying interactions among natural and anthropogenic ​processes that constitute water and environmental security under changing conditions. He is currently the co-chair of the Hydroclimatology Panel of Global Energy and Water Exchanges, one of the core projects of the World Climate Research Program, and serves as a member of the editorial board for several scientific journals.