CEE Seminar Series: Megan Konar, Ph.D.

Talk #1. Groundwater depletion embedded in domestic transfers and international exports of the United States
The U.S. plays a key role in global food security by producing and exporting agricultural products. Groundwater irrigation is increasingly important in agricultural production, nearly tripling since records began in 1950. Increased reliance on groundwater and prolonged unsustainable pumping of aquifers has led to groundwater depletion in many areas. In this study, we ask: How much groundwater depletion is embedded in the domestic transfers and international agricultural exports of the U.S? How much do domestic and international agricultural commodity fluxes rely on unsustainable groundwater use? To address these questions, we quantify the amount of nonrenewable groundwater that is incorporated into agricultural commodities produced in the U.S. and transferred both within the country and exported internationally. We find that 26.3 km3 of nonrenewable groundwater was transferred domestically in 2002 and 2.7 km3 was sent abroad. In 2012, 34.8 km3 was transferred domestically and 3.7 km3 was exported. This indicates an increase of 32% in domestic transfers and 38% in international exports. In 2002, we find that 1,491,126 kilotonnes (340 billion $USD) of agricultural products reliant on nonrenewable groundwater were domestically transferred, while 119,048 kilotonnes (47 billion $USD) were exported. In 2012, the mass transfer of agricultural goods reliant on unsustainable groundwater decreased, but their value in national and international supply chains increased by 54% and 31%, respectively. Our results underscore the importance of the long-term risks posed to global agricultural supply chains from reliance on unsustainable groundwater use.

Talk #2. Food flows between counties in the United States
Food consumption and production are separated in space through flows of food along complex supply chains. These food supply chains are critical to our food security, making it important to evaluate them. However, detailed spatial information on food flows within countries is rare. The goal of this paper is to estimate food flows between all county pairs within the U.S. To do this, we develop the Food Flow Model, a data-driven methodology to estimate spatially explicit food flows. The Food Flow Model integrates machine learning, network properties, production and consumption statistics, mass balance constraints, and linear programming. Specifically, we downscale empirical information on food flows between 132 freight analysis framework locations (17,292 potential links) to the 3142 counties and county-equivalents of the United States (9,869,022 potential links). Subnational food flow estimates can be used in future work to improve our understanding of vulnerabilities within a national food supply chain, determine critical infrastructures, and enable spatially detailed footprint assessments.

Bio: Megan Konar is an assistant professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Konar's research, focusing on the intersection of water, food and trade, is interdisciplinary and draws from hydrology, environmental science and economics. She received a doctorate in civil and environmental engineering from Princeton University in 2012, a master’s degree in water science, policy and management from Oxford University in 2005, and a bachelor’s degree in conservation and resource studies from UC Berkeley in 2002. She was recently awarded the NSF CAREER award and Early Career Award from AGU Hydrologic Sciences.